The would-be African nation in love with Donald Trump

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Many people in Somaliland are convinced that the United States, under the incoming presidency of Donald Trump, is poised to become the world’s first country to recognise the self-declared republic.

The territory declared independence 33 years ago after Somalia descended into civil war – and in many ways has functioned as a de facto nation-state ever since.

“Donald is our saviour. He is a wise and practical man. God bless America,” says university student Aisha Ismail, whose voice trembles with delight at the prospect.

She is speaking to me from Hargeisa, Somaliland’s capital – a city 850km (530 miles) north of Mogadishu, the seat of Somalia’s government.

For those in Mogadishu, Somaliland is an indivisible part of Somalia.

“I doubt Donald Trump knows what Somaliland is, never mind where it is,” says Abdi Mohamud, a data analyst in Mogadishu, whose voice starts to shake.

“I am spitting fire.”

He is so angry because Ms Ismail’s great expectation is not necessarily a pipe dream, at least in the long term.

Powerful and influential Republicans are pushing for the same thing, including Congressman Scott Perry who last month introduced a bill proposing formal US recognition for Somaliland.

It followed the publication in April 2023 of Project 2025, a roadmap for the second Trump presidency compiled by the prominent right-wing Heritage Foundation and more than 100 other conservative organisations

The document mentions only two African territories in its sub-Saharan Africa section – Somaliland and Djibouti – and proposes “the recognition of Somaliland statehood as a hedge against the US’s deteriorating position in Djibouti”.

Any move towards recognising Somaliland’s independence would not only contravene Somalia’s sovereignty but also destabilise the region by setting a dangerous precedent”
Ali Mohamed Omar
Somali state minister for foreign affairs

However, the fact that sub-Saharan Africa takes up less than two pages in the 900-plus page plan suggests the continent is very low on the priority list.

Also, there is no guarantee the incoming administration will follow the blueprint, some of which Trump has already disavowed.

But one thing is clear. The US has already started to change its stance on Somaliland, moving away from its Mogadishu-focused approach, known as the “one-track” Somalia policy.

Somalia has cost the US dearly in financial, resource and human terms since the early 1990s when the bodies of 18 American servicemen were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu after US helicopters were shot down by Somali clan fighters.

The battle, known as “Black Hawk Down”, was America’s worst in terms of casualties since the Vietnam War.

“Any move towards recognising Somaliland’s independence would not only contravene Somalia’s sovereignty but also destabilise the region by setting a dangerous precedent,” says Somali State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Mohamed Omar.

The African Union and other global powers believe territorial integrity is paramount. Recognising Somaliland could set off a chain reaction with separatists across the world demanding recognition for the territories they claim.

Omar also highlighted concerns about a possible repeat of the first Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from Somalia most American troops who have been fighting al-Shabab, regularly described as al-Qaeda’s most successful affiliate.

Under Joe Biden’s presidency about 500 US troops have been stationed in Somalia – carrying out special operations and training an elite Somali force, Danab, which means “Lightning” and has proved more effective than the regular Somali army at rooting out al-Shabab.

The Americans have an airbase at Baledogle, north-west of Mogadishu, and conduct regular airstrikes against Islamist insurgents.

“A withdrawal would create a significant security vacuum, emboldening terrorist groups and threatening the stability of not only Somalia but the broader Horn of Africa,” Omar warned.

Pro-recognition Republicans have presented Somaliland as a good business case, hoping to appeal to Trump’s deal-making approach. Project 2025 used the term “hedge”.

A US-based Somaliland diplomat said: “It depends how they sell it to him. They have to make it attractive; they have to seduce him.”

Whether he means it or not, bringing up the explosive issue of recognition would likely suit Trump the disruptor.

It would certainly bring him attention and he could boast about being first.

It would also enrage Somalia, a country he included in his reported 2018 list of “shithole” nations and a place to which he wants to deport undocumented Somalis, failed asylum seekers and criminals.

There is already talk in Somaliland that the territory will be used as a “dumping ground” for such people in exchange for US recognition.

US academic Ken Menkhaus, who has followed Somali issues for decades, brings much-needed balance to the debate.

“It is very likely we will see significant shifts in US policy towards Somaliland and Somalia,” he says.

“Mr Trump has a deep suspicion of foreign aid, is sceptical about state-building and is a neo-isolationist.”

The Horn of Africa needs to be braced for change.

Source: BBC

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